NMR is proud to have six teammates present findings on various energy-efficiency topics this week at IEPEC. In this edition of NMR Chats, we’re spotlighting Director Monica Nevius and her paper “Moving a Mountain: An Update on The Task of Shifting a Market,” co-authored by teammates from NMR, DNV, Prahl & Associates, and National Grid.

Can you share your IEPEC topic and give me a brief summary?

In 2022, the Sponsors of Mass Save® redesigned and expanded their support for electrifying space and water heating in Massachusetts to transform markets for heat pumps in homes and businesses. The paper reports on progress towards that goal.

Market transformation (MT) requires large upfront investment, and effects can take years to emerge—it needs a long-term evaluation approach. Since 2022, NMR and DNV have worked together on annual evaluations to assess market progress, gather qualitative evidence for attribution, estimate market shares and penetration, and build the data foundation for quantifying market effects from the Sponsors’ efforts.

The paper describes findings from the first three studies and from a related study estimating heat pump purchase and installation costs. So far, they show growing heat pump adoption and other market changes since 2022, with strong evidence that Sponsors’ support for heat pumps played a key role. They also show that prices of residential heat pumps have risen faster than inflation and faster competing equipment prices.

What about this topic excites you?

Electrifying space and water heating is a critical element in addressing climate change and I am honored to work on it. Separately, the project is a really interesting evaluation challenge. We’re following guidance on the most effective practices for measuring market transformation and market effects and assessing progress towards market transformation, and I’m proud of this work.

Can you give me a bit about your background in energy-efficiency evaluation and at NMR?

I have been at NMR since 2011, where I am a director. I oversee the team’s cross-cutting work in Massachusetts. I have a PhD in Sociology from the University of Wisconsin, where I studied energy consumption behavior. This project is an excellent example of ecological modernization—a big deal in environmental sociology. I worked at the Consortium for Energy Efficiency for ten years, where I led an evaluation committee that focused on evaluating market transformation programs. I also led several workshops for folks in the industry, including regulators. For me, working on this project feels like my career coming full circle.

Check back after the conference for more on our paper presentations!